Rohingya Repatriation: One step closer with help from China?

China’s influence in Myanmar has always been significant, and right now it seems focused on saving the military junta from being punished for alleged war crimes against Rohingya Muslims after the military crackdown in Rakhine state, which resulted in more than a million Rohingya fleeing the country into southern Bangladesh. Saleem Samad has the latest from Dhaka. 

Chinese Asia Affairs special envoy Deng Xijun 'secretly' visited Dhaka in July with an aim to revitalise the repatriation of Rohingyas as soon as possible. This was the envoy’s second visit to the Bangladesh capital in just three months.

Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina also met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the recent BRICS summit in Johannesburg, with discussions tipped to push the "Strategic Partnership of Cooperation" between the two countries to a new level.

The Myanmar military-backed genocidal campaign against the Rohingya in 2017 was labelled by the United Nations as a "textbook example of ethnic cleansing".

Currently, Rohingya refugees occupy the world’s largest refugee settlement, encompassing 33 highly congested camps in the Cox’s Bazar district of southern Bangladesh, prone to fire, cyclones, landslides and disease.

Hundreds of Rohingya have perished at sea, attempting desperate journeys across the Bay of Bengal, west to India , or south to Malaysia and Indonesia.

Myanmar's Union Minister Than Shwe (r) meets Chinese envoy Den Xijun in July 2023 / image Myanmar Ministry of Info

The Chinese Communist Party is increasingly jittery amid the indictment of their loyal regional ally for alleged war crimes at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), at The Hague.

Western governments and international rights groups hailed the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), an alliance of Islamic and Muslim countries, which initially brought the genocide case to the ICJ, where Gambia took up the cause.

Gambia filed a petition with the court regarding Myanmar’s alleged violations of the Genocide Convention against the ethnic Rohingya population in Myanmar’s northern Rakhine State. Myanmar is a signatory to the UN's 1948 Prevention of Genocide Convention.

In response to Gambia’s case, Myanmar will have to submit a counter-memorial as a response to the ICJ. The case is presently under investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and Prosecutor Karim Ahmad Khan, who along with deputies, visited the camps in early July and spoke to genocide survivors and other stakeholders.

A United Nations investigation found that the military campaign in 2018 had been carried out with “genocidal intent” and recommended that coup leader and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and five other generals be prosecuted.

The 2017 atrocities against the Rohingya were committed during the tenure of the pre-coup civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi. She defended the military against allegations of genocide at the ICJ, in December 2019.

Rohingya near Sittwe, capital of Rakhine Province, 2017 / Image G Acton

Myanmar has repeatedly denied committing genocide and explained the crackdown in 2017 targeted Rohingya rebel groups like the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, (ARSA) who had attacked Myanmar border police posts from across the Bangladesh border.

Once the ICJ hears the plea, the UN is likely to impose yet more sanctions on Myanmar, further pressuring the regime in the capital Naypyidaw.

Political analyst Mohiuddin Ahmad says with such a standoff between the UN and Myanmar, it will be a big embarrassment for China to continue its current support for the regime. China may also lose the confidence of members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), Ahmad said.

In another failed attempt to repatriate 1100 Rohingyas, the refugees declined the offer to return unless their citizenship is restored, and they were returned to their villages, with access to healthcare, education, livelihood and freedom of movement.

Mohammed Mizanur Rahman, the Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC) responsible for Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar said the Myanmar junta cleared only 711 Rohingyas out of the 1140 recommended by Bangladesh.

During a previous visit to Bangladesh last year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi [who has been recently reinstated after previous Foreign Minister Qin Gang was purged] said that the Rohingya crisis has been a top priority in the unresolved bilateral agenda, and that China has exerted its influence on Myanmar to broker an agreement to repatriate about 700,000 Rohingya refugees.

The half a dozen refugee leaders accompanied the government delegation to Rakhine State to assess the situation regarding planned settlement of the refugees. They returned disheartened and said they do not wish to be relocated from one refugee camp in Bangladesh to another enclosed settlement in Rakhine.

The refugee leaders demand to be returned to their homes, in the villages they were forced to flee. This could remain a problematic sticking point, as the Myanmar military has systematically destroyed many hundreds of Rohingya villages across Rakhine, and has no interest in rebuilding them.

Meanwhile, international organisations working for Rohingya refugees including UNHCR and Washington-based Human Rights Watch have echoed the sentiment of the Rohingya refugees not to be repatriated unless their demands are met.

Surprisingly, China has slightly bent their usual policy of favouring the Myanmar junta and accepted the demands of the refugees for safe and sustainable refugee repatriation.

The visiting Chinese envoy has agreed with Dhaka that unless Naypyidaw ensures the status of Rohingya minorities, it would be a “challenge” for the three countries.

According to Myanmar’s state-run daily newspaper Global New Light of Myanmar, the Chinese envoy made a prior visit before disembarking in Dhaka.

During the discussions, Xijun committed to providing financial assistance for implementing the repatriation plan for Rohingya who were “evicted” [not forcibly displaced] from Rakhine.

Regarding the meeting with Bangladesh, the officials who attended the dialogue said the Chinese special envoy emphasized reinvigorating the stalled Rohingya repatriation process.

The Chinese envoy also reiterated that Myanmar is committed to repatriation, but that Bangladesh and the United Nations have serious doubts about the junta’s intentions.

Bangladesh is committed that the Rohingya repatriation will be under the supervision of the UNHCR, and officials insist that Myanmar should ensure a conducive environment in the Rakhine state to enable Rohingya repatriation to be voluntary, safe and sustainable.

If that can eventually be accomplished, the operation will now likely be further delayed until the end of the monsoon season, adding further frustration on the Bangladesh side of the border.

How and where the Rohingya can be able to return to Myanmar seems a step closer to being finalised, but there remain deep suspicions about the motivation for the move, with Myanmar desperate to show the ICJ that the bad days are over.

Analysts agree the successful repatriation of the Rohingya cannot simply be left to Myanmar, but will require regional, and international support.

 Saleem Samad is an independent journalist based in Bangladesh.  Twitter: @saleemsamad

  + Banner Image : A ransacked Mosque in the Rakhine State capital Sittwe / image G Acton

- Asia Media Centre