China: Lockdowns Spark Protests

Protests against Covid restrictions which rocked some Chinese cities over the weekend have petered out for the moment, with protestors admitting they are too disorganised to counter the increased police presence.

Huge blue barriers have been erected along the main protest route in Shanghai and police have moved to stop people taking photographs in the area, and forcing others to delete images from their phones. 

Nationwide protests erupted after a fire in a multi-storey building in Urumqi, western China, killed 10 people late last week.

Many Chinese believe the toll was down to residents escaping the building being blocked by locked fire escapes - however, local authorities have rejected that claim. 

At the heart of the unrest is China's controversial "zero-Covid"  policy, where local health authorities across the country swoop on new outbreaks of the disease with often extreme lockdowns, mass testing and quarantine measures.

The AMC brought together a group of academic China watchers for their thoughts on the current situation and where to next for the CCP in its fight against Covid-19.  

How has the "Zero Covid" policy played out in China? 

Dr Jason Young, Director NZ Contemporary China Research Centre, Victoria University 

" I think in the early stages it was a reasonably effective if a little draconian policy, in the same way in the early days New Zealand used lockdowns and quarantines. That has worked in China, but as we saw in New Zealand, once Covid was in the community and had outrun the ability of health authorities to contain it, you need to move to a new stage and that is a real challenge to China as they have not prepared for that next stage, so they are really using an old policy to deal with a new reality. At the same time people are becoming frustrated with no end in sight."

Dr Bates Gill, Executive Director of the Centre for China Analysis, Asia Society 

" Well, we have had our own struggles with Covid but we've done it with an effective vaccine. China has not fully vaccinated the population, and even if they had their vaccine is only 65% effective. So if they do lift these restrictions they will have widespread illness and death. You can't blame them for the lockdowns, but they have chosen not to go with a more effective vaccine which they could have acquired, and now they are stuck in this situation." 

Dr James To, Senior Advisor, Research & Engagement, Asia New Zealand Foundation Te WhĪtau Tūhono 

"Like New Zealand was last year, the Zero-Covid strategy is supposed to buy you time to vaccinate enough people for herd immunity. The problem is that not enough people in China are vaccinated, and there are questions around the effectiveness of the vaccine. The main thing to consider is the sheer scale – with a huge population of 1.4 billion. You only need a small fraction of that to overwhelm the health and medical systems. Basically, if China was to start living with the virus, as most other countries around the world are doing, there would be huge challenges – least of all the large number of deaths. Ultimately, it is the CCP leadership that takes responsibility for what happens.  And that is the crux of what is holding China back from moving away from the zero covid policy."

Dr Duncan Campbell, NZ Contemporary China Research Centre, Victoria University 

"I think the Chinese government has little alternative given the low vaccination rates. But of all governments in the world you would think the Chinese would have the ability to make sure everyone is vaccinated. There's also this refusal to make use of the international vaccines is notable, so they have a nightmare situation as the public is kicking back on the restrictions."

Is China still to face its most difficult battle with Covid?

Dr Jason Young: " I see no evidence that that are prepared for the next stage of having Covid in the community and so , yes, this is the most serious situation for China." 

Dr Bates Gill: " Without developing a properly vaccinated population there will be no end to the lockdowns if their intention is to keep infections under control.. It was a huge error on their part not to introduce a more effective vaccine earlier in the pandemic."  

Dr James To: "Unfortunately, we have seen little improvement in the battle against the virus. There are more lockdowns across Chinese cities. As the virus spreads, we’ll see it get worse as things spiral out of control. A lot of what we hear will be censored and blocked – so even if the situation was worse, we might not know for some time." 

What sort of risk do individual Chinese citizens take with this kind of street protest?

Dr Jason Young: " Often when there is protest in China arrests are made, and charges can be laid. There's also an element of discussion in China now that these are protests provoked by foreign interests, so that adds another level of risk for people involved on the streets. Of course there's also Police action, and other state agencies that can put down protests in quite violent ways."

"So far it's been more about crowd control, but people were being arrested. It's incredibly risky to go against the Covid restrictions and then to protest on the street in a country where  authorities aren't that tolerant to that sort of thing."

"There are always protests in China, but they are usually very localised affairs, about land issues, labour rights issues, women's rights, but the difference here is that its around one particular issue primarily, which gives it a sort of national identity. From that perspective I imagine authorities will be working quickly to shut this down. The other side of it is that Xi Jinping has touted the "Zero Covid" policy has been world-leading, so he's tied his name to it." 

Dr Bates Gill: " Anyone in China faces a high risk questioning authority, and we've seen the arrests. But I would note that among the social media i have seen, a lot of the people who are there are actually bystanders and not fighting with Police. Of course the use of social media can bypass censors and spread the word on the protest. But one of the most important developments in this is that it is a national moment, it's not isolated or localised. and it's going to be all the more difficult to deal with because of that. I think the nature of this is different, more volatile for the leadership. "    

Dr James To: "The CCP has always taken a hard line against dissenters. Whether being shouted down, or going further and taken away, arrested. In China, how people behave is monitored and regulated increasingly by social media and apps like the Sesame social credit system. Eventually protestors will be identified and made to get in line."

"We’ve seen some creative ways of protestors not overtly protesting – raising a blank piece of paper or crawling around in a circle. These things start like this, and as it grows, the authorities get jittery and just shut it down – and usually don't hesitate to use force."

Dr Duncan Campbell: "I can't speak more highly of the people on the streets. Everything is being watched with CCTV and face recognition and the CCP, it's incredibly risky for protestors and the party state can be very unforgiving."  "On the other side there are also the phone cameras, the social media, and while the censorship system in China is very effective, it's obviously been overwhelmed to some extent by the individuals and social media." 

Are these protests actually a threat to the CCP and Xi Jinping as far as their power base is concerned?

Dr Jason Young: " I don't think we've seen a real threat so far, but I think the next few months have now become a more pressing challenge, as China deals with a fairly poor vaccination rate, with a home grown vaccine that's not entirely effective. If covid number go up, death rates go up, then that will be a major challenge as they don't have a strategy in place to deal with the problems. There could be more protests, and even more people showing their anger" 

Dr Bates Gill: "I don't think I would go that far at present. My instinct is that this is not posing a real threat to the CCP, but if there were some very violent or deadly episode, and how that played out, then that could spin in a very bad way in my view.  

Dr James To: "The CCP and Xi’s primary objective is to stay in power. That means ensuring nothing rocks the boat, and people remain distracted. Anything that threatens the CCP’s hold to power is dealt with swiftly – using persuasive methods initially - there are various levers that might be used – materialism, patriotism, nationalism or simply being a good Chinese citizen.  And if that doesn’t work, then forcefully. If enough complain and protest then we see police brought in – we’ve seen what that can look like in Hong Kong during the National Security Law protests.  But in China, it wouldn’t be rubber bullets or sand bags."

"Some people have talked about a Tiananmen. In fact, China watchers have argued that China’s approach to COVID and dealing with human rights and democracy is their 21st century Tiananmen. Even back in 1989, the world was watching. This time, most western media won’t be there. But the role of social media will be a game changer in how news gets out."

Dr Duncan Campbell: "My analysis would be no, unless of course there is something from within the party that is fomenting these protests in a reaction to Xi Jinping's over-reach. We don't see any example of this but on the other hand the whole thing is so opaque, we are flying blind to some extent. I wouldn't say the CCP is feeling directly threatened."   

Could the CCP actually be displaced by a popular, widespread protest movement? 

Dr Jason Young: "It's super-hypothetical, but the CCP since 1949 has never tolerated mass protest on a national scale that challenges their right to rule. They will do everything in their power to suppress any type of movement that had as its goal a change of government or political system. Then again, the same was true in the Soviet Union, its just that in the case of China the economy is still functioning and people's lives have generally been getting better, despite the Covid issue. I would be hesitant to predict how this will play out though."   

Dr Bates Gill:  "Urban educated people have been in many ways co-opted by the CCP because they have been convinced by its arguments and its actions that their lifestyle and prosperity that the cohort of elites has enjoyed is because the party has run things well and kept things stable. But now the elite is being impacted by the covid restrictions in the cities, so the Chinese elite are beginning to question what's happening in a way they haven't in the past. On the other hand they may feel they have a lot more to lose in a widespread protest movement."

Dr Duncan Campbell: "It would only happen if part of the military decided to act for some reason, it won't be a popular uprising. But it would be chaotic, and bloody, as the party has its hooks into everything."

What significance do these protests have coming just a few weeks after the 20th Party Congress?

Dr Bates Gill: "I'm not sure. One way to think of it would be looking beyond the Covid lockdowns, there could also be other concerns by some Chinese about other issues, including a growing concern perhaps in the direction Xi Jinping is taking the country. I would suspect for some of those protesting it is bigger than simply Covid. "

Dr James To: "It has been 3 weeks since the 20th Congress. The CCP does a big job of ensuring nothing causes disturbance in the lead up. Anything that would upset a smooth Congress is quickly brushed under the carpet.  But afterwards, you’d expect any crises to make themselves known.  So, in some ways, the visible pressure and protests over the long lockdowns is not really a huge surprise.

Dr Duncan Campbell " While Xi Jinping made a point of taking control of the party at the Congress, the party itself has some 96 million members, and one would assume some of those people are on the streets protesting - especially at the Universities. Those students could be party members, or the children of party members, or aspirant party members. Protestors demanding "freedom" takes on a different meaning perhaps than just freedom from Covid restrictions. The actual chant was, "xiatai !", meaning "get off the stage", which is exactly what they chanted in 1989 about then-leader Deng Xiaoping. The current leader Xi Jinping has had four weeks of absolute power, and they have had enough.." 

What's likely to happen next?   

Dr Bates Gill: "I think you could see some loosening of restrictions by local authorities, just to defuse the situation. Police are restrained, the security forces don't appear to be about the crack down. I think a loosening of Covid rules would take the wind out of the sails of the protest. I think a show of force here would be foolish.  

Dr James To: "It’s always a wait and see. It appears the protests have been moderated somewhat over the last day or so.  But that doesn’t mean the frustration, tension and anger has. In fact, the longer you bottle that up, the more chance there is of some outburst. If that is the case, and people feel desperate enough, then we could start seeing an uptake in social disorder. Once that happens, the CCP will be putting out those fires. If it gets worse and more widespread, the fear is the CCP then find others ways of mass-distraction – and playing the patriotism card remains on the table. "

"In any case, the CCP are backing themselves into a corner. It takes a strong leader to admit that sometimes you need to change tack. President Xi could do that – but it appears he prefers the strongman approach".

 Dr Duncan Campbell:  " Lockdowns by Police will make it impossible for people to gather in the streets, they could use the pretext of a Covid lockdown, there are many things they can do. The protestors have said they are not organised enough to take on the Police, and that's precisely why the protests occurred in the first place, because they weren't organised. Any organised protest on this scale is suppressed."  

-Asia Media Centre