India's State Elections

Three months after his worst election performance to date, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing another political slugfest: this time in the powderkeg region of Jammu and Kashmir, where separatist sentiment is extremely virulent, and many voters are still furious over losing their political autonomy five years ago.

Local elections are underway in Jammu and Kashmir, the first poll in the northern region since Modi’s government stripped the region of its special status, and brought it under federal control in 2019.

Almost 9 million registered voters will choose candidates for 90 seats in the local Parliament in a series of elections over the coming weeks.

Kashmir-Jammu Map / Image Wikimedia Commons

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has promised to bring investments, tourism and employment to the region, but in Muslim-majority Kashmir the Modi government is routinely regarded with suspicion over its blatantly pro-Hindu political agenda.

For the BJP’s opponents, this contest is not about vague promises of 500 thousand new jobs for the region, its more about a return to the semi-autonomy the state held for more than 70 years.

And this time the poll is a real political battle, with key regional parties deciding to participate rather than boycott the election and push a policy platform demanding local control of public services like policing, health and finance.

Chief among the BJP’s opponents is Omar Abdullah, leader of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference.

Abdullah is seen by many as a likely candidate for chief minister if his party wins a electoral majority, although he continues to downplay the possibility in media interviews. His party has already formed an alliance with the Indian National Congress, the country’s main opposition group.

If the BJP loses here, it will be a huge boost for the opposition alliance under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi and his Congress party – with a second state election in the state of Haryana coming up in a few weeks.

The BJP may well prevail as the largest party, with Hindu-dominated Jammu expected to support Modi.  But a strong anti-BJP turnout in Kashmir would send a message to New Delhi, as well as the courts and international community.

The Hindu-nationalist BJP is also facing a vote in Maharashtra state, which includes the  financial capital Mumbai, and a part of the country where Modi suffered significant defeats in the national elections.

Elections will also take place over the next five months in Jharkhand and Delhi, both areas held by the opposition.

-          Asia Media Centre