Myanmar’s Struggling Military Seeking Further Russia Support

OP-ED: It was Min Aung Hlaing’s fourth visit to Russia since the military coup in 2021, but the meeting earlier this month was the first official visit at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin.  The meet coincided with 25 years of “friendly relations” between Naypyidaw and Moscow, and 77 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

The outcome of the high-level talks saw Myanmar agree to open two new consulates in in St Petersburg and Novosibirsk. Myanmar and Russia also signed an agreement for the construction of a small-scale nuclear plant in Myanmar, which will initially generate a power capacity of 110MW, but could be expanded in the future.  

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

The more bizarre takeaways from the meeting was when the Myanmar junta boss presented Putin with an obscure story that the relations between Myanmar and Russia today mean a prophecy told by the Buddha thousands of years ago has now came true. The tale tells that a rat king made offerings to the Buddha and that in 2,000 years it would become Russia’s “king”, thus Hlaing referring to Putin as the reincarnated “rat king”.

As for Putin, he hailed the ties between the two countries, and how bilateral trade between the two countries has increased by 40 percent in the past year.

Aung Thu Nyein, a political analyst from Myanmar, told me the embattled junta boss was given a much-needed boost both personally and economically after his visit to the Kremlin.

“The trip of Min Aung Hlaing to Russia seemingly make him confident more, in terms of diplomacy and survival supports for Myanmar military, at the time of disruption in international order. I believe Min Aung Hlaing personally admires Putin and he seems so happy for the meeting with Putin,” he said.

“It is obvious, Min Aung Hlaing has sided to Russia. He secured an agreement to build a small nuclear generator from Russia trip and weapons, including fighter jets,” he added.

In the past 18 months, the Myanmar military has faced a determined, nationwide offensive, made up of ethnic group alliances who have historically fought with one another for land. But today, their common enemy is Myanmar’s military and their attempted rule.

Since October 2023, a counter offensive from three ethnic armed groups, beginning in Myanmar’s Shan State, captured townships and territory which has now seen its momentum spread nationwide. This has led to Myanmar’s military losing significant territory, and today the junta reportedly controls less than half of the country.

It’s clear the pro-democracy resistance has made territorial strides like never before, but there are fears that momentum could be slowed because of the military’s dealings.

Min Aung Hlaing and his military administration have been largely isolated on the international stage and have been heavily sanctioned by Western countries

But during the meeting in Moscow, junta officials reportedly asked Russia for additional arms, including special drone technology.

In the past three years in the Ukraine-Russia war, the use of drones in warfare has become a major tactical arm for both Moscow and Kyiv, who have invested heavily in drone technology, significantly altering modern war tactics.

For Myanmar’s embattled military, they hope assistance on drone technology, and production, will give them a leg-up on the battlefield.

In the Ukraine-Russian war, drones have become a major tactical arm for both sides. Pictured: Remains of Russian missiles and drones in Ukraine/Wikimedia Commons

“For Min Aung Hlaing, it’s obviously a diplomatic win,” Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington said on the Russia talks.

“The most important piece from the visit will be in the licensed production of drones. It took the Tatmadaw years to catch up to what the [people defence forces] and [ethnic revolutionary organisations] were doing with drones, but they are now being deployed with effect. The opposition has taken heavy casualties and their offenses have slowed. Licensed drone production is essential for the cash strapped junta,” Abuza added.

Myanmar’s anti-military armed resistance groups and people defence forces have long used make-shift drone technology to attack junta forces. Drones mostly used for filming and other purposes have been smuggled into Myanmar and used to drop explosives on military troops.

But the junta has caught on and increased its own use of unmanned drone and aerial vehicles (UAV), allowing them to strike back against the pro-democracy resistance, and according to rights groups, civilians.

When drones are mentioned in this context, the country that springs to mind is China. The world’s biggest drone supplier, Beijing is a long-term ally of Myanmar. And in November, prior to visit Moscow, Hlaing visited China.

Beijing have for decades supplied the Myanmar military with arms. Today is Myanmar’s biggest trade partner, and also invested billions in the oil and gas sector, and infrastructure in the country.

But if it wasn’t for General Hlaing’s visit to China, a high-level visit to Moscow may never have happened, according to one expert.

“Min Aung Hlaing’s visit to China last year in many ways paved the way for him to make a higher-level visit to Russia,” said Jason Tower, Myanmar Country Director at the United States Institute of Peace.

“It is clear that the military regime is trying to exploit any possible openings to hedge between China and Russia. While so, such a strategy is likely to fail, as China sees Russian support for the military junta as complementary to its own push to stabilize the military regime.”

Although China is Myanmar’s biggest ally both economically and politically, the takeaways from Hlaing’s visit to Moscow are still significant.

While tales of rat kings and requests for drones will made headlines, one of several MOU’s signed between the military and Moscow may enhance the Myanmar’s military’s ground intel furthermore. Putin revealed that a satellite imagery analysis centre had been established in Myanmar with the help of Russia. Although the joint initiative is labelled under the context of satellite imagery and space exploration, it was revealed that information captured by satellite may be shared with the Myanmar military.

Moscow has also long supplied arms and war technology to the Myanmar military, including hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment since the 2021 coup. That support has contributed to the junta’s indiscriminate attacks to both those resisting junta rule and innocent bystanders.

When frantic frightened civilians in Myanmar are try desperately to avoid the radar of air attacks from overhead, it must be remembered that often those fighter jets doing the damage from above are made in Moscow.

For the Myanmar military and its few, powerful partners, it’s clear that the sky’s the limit.

Asia Media Centre