Myanmar & the ICC

An International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Myanmar’s military boss Min Aung Hlaing is more symbolic than anything else, experts say.

Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the ICC, has requested the arrest warrant citing grounds that the Min Aung Hlaing committed crimes against humanity against the Muslim Rohingya ethnic group, which led to thousands being killed, persecuted and forced to flee the country.

After a five-year investigation, the final decision on the arrest warrant is yet to be released by the ICC. But Myanmar is not an ICC signatory, meaning an imminent arrest is next to impossible.

The International Criminal Court in The Hague/ image Jbdodane on Flickr

 David Scott Mathieson, an independent Myanmar analyst, says the ICC request for a warrant is mostly “symbolic”.

“I think the ICC request for an arrest warrant is an important but really mostly symbolic move. It may provide a boost of encouragement to the Rohingya people and to supporters of international justice, but it won't likely have any measurable impact on the conflict raging throughout Myanmar. It has to be remembered the arrest request only applies to violence against the Rohingya and how it relates to Bangladesh, which is an ICC member,” he said.

According to Medecins Sans Frontieres, (MSF), at least 6,700 Rohingya were killed in the space of one month between August and September 2017. The deaths included over 700 Rohingya children.

https://www.msf.org/myanmarbangladesh-msf-surveys-estimate-least-6700-rohingya-were-killed-during-attacks-myanmar

Min Aung Hlaing was the commander-in-chief of the Myanmar army at the time, which has led to the ICC’s prosecutors’ request for the arrest.

The Myanmar military crackdown on the Rohingya first began in 2016 which caused an international outcry. It even saw Aung San Suu Kyi, the notable former leader of Myanmar’s democracy party, heavily criticised for refusing to take action on her military generals.

The crackdown against the Rohingya during this period has contributed to what rights group and critics call the Rohingya Genocide, which is an ongoing persecution. Reports say as many as 43,000 Rohingya's have been killed overall in the past 7 years. The Myanmar military has denied genocide, saying it has defended the country from attacks by Rohingya militants.

 What has baffled some experts is that Min Aung Hlaing’s potential ICC arrest warrant has only been requested for his Rohingya crimes, and not the nearly-four-year civil conflict sparked by the coup.

Min Aung Hlaing led a military coup in February 2021, ousting the democratically elected government, and detaining leader Aung San Suu Kyi and Myanmar President Win Myint.

The military-backed political parties had been defeated heavily in the November 2020 elections, in which they claimed unsubstantiated electoral fraud, acting as a pre-text for the coup.

It has since sparked a nationwide armed resistance against the junta, consisting of peoples defence forces, a shadow governmen,t and armed ethnic groups.. 

“[The ICC request for an arrest warrant] does not relate to nearly four years of massive war crimes and crimes against humanity by Min Aung Hlaing throughout Myanmar,” Mathieson said.  “So, millions of people inside Myanmar can take some succor from Min Aung Hlaing's discomfit over this arrest request, but it unfortunately won't stop the Myanmar military atrocity machine,” Mathieson added.

 Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asia politics, says the violence across the country since the coup likely contributed to the decision.

“The arrest warrant is way overdue, given the 2019 case at the Hague, where so much evidence of ethnic cleansing was presented by prosecutors. The junta’s continued daily attacks on civilian populations across the country, probably contributed to the ICC decision,” he said.

Abuza says the most important part of the possible warrant is the diplomatic impact.

“China rejected the arrest warrant as an over-reach and a violation of Myanmar's internal affairs, just as China itself continues to interfere in Myanmar’s internal affairs. ASEAN states have said very little. While few states were ever going to invite Ming Aung Hlaing to start with, this will definitely limit his travel options,” he added.

 Aung Thu Nyein, a political analyst with Myanmar's Institute for Strategy & Policy , says the potential arrest warrant is a label that will hold back Min Aung Hlaing and his own ambitions.  

“The State Administrative Council has bluntly rejected the accusation. But the ICC sticks the label of criminal offences to Min Aung Hlaing, it would be very difficult for his ambition [to become] a future president,” he said.

There are questions to whether the ICC arrest warrant could boost the morale of the Myanmar resistance fighting to dispose of the military.  The junta has suffered severe losses in the past 14 months, as resistance forces have come together in new alliances, occupying significant parts of the country and pushing the Tatmadaw back on numerous fronts. More than half the country is now not under army control.

“[It’s] hard to say. As far as I [have] learned, [the arrest warrant] has had little impact on Myanmar military leadership and its units. But surely, the opposition will politicise it,” Aung Thu Nyein added.

The arrest warrant announcement from the ICC is just more bad news for a junta leader facing military setbacks in most parts of the country.

Latest reports suggest that one of the most powerful ethnic minority armed groups battling Myanmar’s army has taken control of the entire 271-kilometre long border with Bangladesh. If that proves correct, the victory gives the rebel Arakan Army control of the entire northern half of Rakhine State, once home to many of the Rohinga forced to flee by the Tatmadaw crackdown in 2017.

However, the rebel group has been accused of its own human rights violations, particularly involving its capture of the town Buthidaung earlier this year , when it reportedly forced a group of up to 200,000 local residents, mostly Rohingyas, to flee before burning down most of the township.

The increasing threat from armed groups has forced the Myanmar military to bring in new measures, including conscription, to boost army personnel numbers. The law means males aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 are now all eligible to serve in the military for at least two years.

In nearly four years of conflict, more than 6,000 people have been killed by the military, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners Burma. Over 27,000 people have been arrested and millions have been displaced.

For Min Aung Hlaing, an ICC arrest warrant may not change the military facts on the ground, but for his opponents its just another small factor contributing to a growing belief that they can prevail in the current conflict.

Banner Image: Soldiers from the Kachin Independence Army, an armed ethnic group in northern Myanmar who have been fighting since the 1960's / Image RFA

• Asia Media Centre