Asia in 2019: Kenneth Leong - Inequality causing unrest across Asia

What developments, events or trends in Asia have interested you the most in 2019? And why?

• The growing tension between young and old, rich and poor. Rising inequality has given rise to unrest among the masses across Asia. The protests in Hong Kong are not just about protecting democracy, but also frustration about the high cost of living, and a pessimistic outlook. Economic gains over the past decade have largely accrued to the wealthiest citizens. People unwilling to accept the status quo will stand up for their rights.

• China exerting greater influence on the world stage has resulted in her neighbours becoming more wary of China’s motives.

• Politicians looking to shore up support are leaning on protectionism, characterised by increasing market regulation and trade barriers.

How does this impact New Zealand – if in fact it does?

It’s inevitable that New Zealand will be impacted by these developments. There will be some winners and some losers.

On one hand, inbound Asian visitor numbers may fall if people are pessimistic about their future.

On the other hand, inbound Asian investment will increase if wealthy investors feel they need to move capital to safer locations. Talented young people can easily move countries and New Zealand is a highly attractive destination. As long as immigration settings are not too restrictive, we will continue to see significant net migration.

New Zealand’s geographic isolation has traditionally been a disadvantage. But with rising global uncertainty, trade wars and terrorism, New Zealand is seen as a safe haven. New Zealand’s response to the Christchurch attacks has further enhanced New Zealand’s reputation globally.

What will you be watching out for in 2020?

Unexpected flare-ups and spontaneous protests, fuelled by social media, causing widespread disruption.

I am also concerned that the developments above will lead to an economic slowdown, causing the unemployment rate to rise and even greater discontent. A vicious cycle.

New Zealand is, relatively speaking, more insulated than most countries but not immune to the effects of an economic downturn.

- Asia Media Centre