El Nino Comes to Asia

The weather pattern known as El Nino is quickly returning to Asia, bringing with it high temperatures heralding a difficult climatic period ahead.

El Nino is a climate pattern moving to Asia from the Pacific, and brings hot and dry conditions to Southeast Asia, in contrast to the wetter and cooler weather from La Nina which has been the predominate pattern in recent years.

 The increasing heat will decrease agricultural production, and likely spark forest fires and the associated haze across parts of South East Asia.

Power and water supplies will be under pressure, also causing problems in the manufacturing sector and businesses.

Across Indonesia, farmers and landowners are bracing for the impact, with some areas already under emergency alerts as concerns over possible forest fires increase.

Seven Indonesian provinces -- mostly palm oil producing areas on Sumatra and Kalimatan islands are on alert for the kinds of blazes that have caused significant losses in recent years.

El Nino will likely be a factor reducing harvest tonnages for export crops like palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's two largest producers of the commodity – although farmers in Malaysia say the reduced harvest may not be seen for a couple of years, depending on how long El Nino stays around.

Forecasters are suggesting 2023 could be a rerun of 2019, when El Nino contributed to widespread fires across Indonesia. Losses were estimated by Indonesian authorities as being in the billions.

The haze from those fires caused significant problems for airlines across the region, especially in Singapore and Malaysia.

The other significant issue was human health – with populations in several countries dealing with the acrid smoke haze, and the respiratory problems that come with it.

Authorities in Singapore are already at work in an attempt to mitigate the risk of haze returning from Indonesia and Malaysia, advising all citizens to get organised with air purifying devices, face masks, and air conditioning.

Vietnam’s national weather agency says it is predicting a record heatwave in the country in the next few months, and coffee producers have warned of a decline in coffee production of as much as 20% in the 2023 year. Vietnam is a top global exporter of coffee beans.

In Thailand, the government says both sugar cane and rice production will also decrease and farmers have been asked not to grow rice in the offseason to spare water for other crops, as well as for the industrial and tourism sectors.

It’s another difficulty for the rice market in Thailand, already seeing record prices after India moved to ban rice exports, pushing prices up across the globe.  

In the Philippines, initial estimates show that local rice production may fall by around 1.8% and while the economic impact could be minimal, the country's central bank considers El Nino's impact on food and energy prices will impact the entire economy.

El Nino is also expected to impact hydropower output in Asian nations, as well as pushing up energy demand as businesses and homes crank up their air conditioning.

Vietnam’s State Electricity agency has declared a "national electricity-saving movement," pleading for a cut in consumption across the country.

Meanwhile Malaysia's National Disaster Management Agency began cloud seeding in the north of the country, in an attempt to encourage rain.

And Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is also on a water conservation drive. "All of us can help. All of us can do something," Marcos said.

- Asia Media Centre