PRC constitution changes: Impact on international ties

China’s National People's Congress (NPC) has voted to remove presidential terms limits by 2,958 in favour and two against (with three abstentions), potentially allowing President Xi Jinping to rule indefinitely. The NPC is meeting from March 5 to 20 to vote on a number of proposed constitutional changes.

The change comes after the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee announced proposed amendments to the PRC’s constitution.

The term limit change is getting the most attention. But there are further notable amendments, including the incorporation  of “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” into the constitution. Further language highlighting the role of the Party and socialist values has also been included.

The following are expert views on what the proposed changes mean for China's international relations.

 Impact on international relations

• Manjeet Pardesi: China's authoritarian turn will make ideological dimensions more salient

• Jason Young: CCP may influence evolving regional structure

• Nicholas Khoo: China likely to continue contesting disputed territories

• Xiaoming Huang: More decisive role in the world

• Stephen Noakes: Little impact on international relations

• Marc Lanteigne: Xi may steer US, Australia relations

China’s authoritarian turn will make ideological dimensions more salient

The US-China rivalry in the post-Cold War era has thus far been a contest for primacy in Asia. China’s recent turn towards more authoritarianism is likely to make the ideological dimension in its relations with the US (and its allies and partners) more salient.

Since the beginning of its economic reforms in 1978, the Chinese Communist Party claimed its legitimacy on economic growth and by resorting to nationalism (since “communism” was no longer the guiding ideology for the Chinese state). After nearly four decades of high tempo economic growth, the Chinese economy appears to be slowing down. The gradual decrease in the rate of growth of the Chinese economy means that the CCP will resort to nationalism to maintain public support. In fact, this has already begun to affect China’s relations with many of its neighbors, especially Japan.  A China that resorts to nationalism, while being beholden to personality cult of a supreme leader and increasing authoritarianism means that we can expect some turbulence in China’s relationship with its neighbors.

In this context, it is not surprising that we are beginning to see the region’s major democracies – Australia and India in addition to the US and Japan – come together in the so-called “quad”. While this is not quite a multilateral alliance (and certainly not a military alliance aimed at China), the region’s major democracies have indeed begun consultations (at the bilateral, trilateral, and even quadrilateral levels) on regional security. Whether or not this emerges as the central axis around which Asian geopolitics will evolve over the next decade remains to be seen. However, China’s non-democratic politics and recent moves towards more authoritarianism mean that China’s relationship with Asia’s other major powers (all democracies) will be difficult. 

If China tries to spread its authoritarian norms abroad – and it seems to be doing so in some domains such as internet censorship – then US-China relations are likely to get more uneasy. For example, Rex Tillerson, the US Secretary of State called for a deepening of US-India relations while stating that America would “never have the same relationship with China, a non-democratic country”. The United States’ own economic policies (including the imposition of tariffs on imports from China) will complicate matters further. In such a geopolitical context, any volatility in Chinese elite politics or a domestic political crackdown in Tibet or Xinjiang (described as a laboratory of high-tech totalitarianism) will cause severe tensions in US-China relations. (How the United States actually responds will also be influenced by the uncertainties in American domestic politics under President Donald Trump.)

Manjeet Pardesi, Victoria University of Wellington

CCP may influence evolving regional structure

The proposed addition of a “community with shared future for humanity” suggests Chinese leaders are serious about contributing their own ideas and organising principles to influence the evolving regional structure and how countries engage with each other in our region.

Jason Young, Victoria University of Wellington; New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre 

China likely to continue contesting disputed territories

In a departure from the Jiang and Hu reign, recent Chinese policy has been particularly assertive, as seen in a variety of high-profile territorial disputes with some of China’s neighbours.

The likely implications of Xi’s consolidation of power are that he will have a freer hand to consolidate Chinese control over territories in the South China Sea, and to continue to contest Japanese sovereignty over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands.

Equally significantly, China will continue its military modernisation, which will receive a fillip in the context of regional uncertainly over the North Korean nuclear issue, and a general sense that US-Asia policy under Trump is adrift.

All this will occur as China expands its global economic presence through initiatives such as the Belt and Road policy and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank initiative.

Nicholas Khoo, University of Otago

More decisive role in the world

I think this signals China, or its current leadership, is strengthening, to a greater degree of success, the domestic political and institutional basis for the more decisive role it intends to play in the world. This does not necessarily mean China and US are ready to crash head on. It does seem to suggest it provides good institutional support that would enable China to operate more effectively and perhaps decisively in international relations. 

Xiaoming Huang, Victoria University of Wellington 

Little impact on international relations

The consequences for China’s international ties will be minimal, and no change is expected in the New Zealand-China relationship. Most of us who watch China closely expected these announcements. There’s nothing shocking about them. The changes signify politics as usual in China (ie. that the CCP remains paramount in the political system).

Stephen Noakes, University of Auckland

Xi may steer US, Australia relations

China’s foreign policy decision-making may become more centralised should President Xi follow through on plans to remain as President and Party Secretary after 2023. One of the reasons why Xi may want to extend his time in office would be to personally oversee the later stages of the Belt and Road trade policies, an enterprise which has included dozens of countries, including New Zealand as of last year. Relations with the United States and Australia may also be subject to more direct involvement by the President should he remain in that position for longer than five years.

Marc Lanteigne, Massey University

Read expert views on what China's constitutional changes mean for domestic politics and NZ-China ties.

– Asia Media Centre