On The Radar: India's Election Begins

The world's most populous country and largest democracy begins its marathon First Past the Post election process later this week.

The stats are huge - over a million polling stations, over 15 million electoral workers, supplemented by the Army who are on the streets to deter violence. 970 million people are eligible to vote.  

Current PM Narendra Modi looks set to secure a third term in power, despite significant opposition and concern about his leadership style and electoral priorities.

The election process runs until early June, involving seats held in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament. The voting age is 18, and registered voters this year include 18 million first-timers who are 18 or 19 years old.

A party or coalition needs to win 272 seats to form a government. The ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) managed to secure a simple majority in the last two elections, in 2019 and 2014, when it won 303 and 282 seats, respectively.

The opposition Congress Party, once the dominant force in Indian politics, is now weakened and losing ground to other opposition parties, none of which are capable of taking on the BJP single-handedly, in the way the Congress Party might once have done.

Voters do not directly elect a prime minister, with members of Parliament deciding on who should fill that position.

The general election to the Lok Sabha is described as the "biggest festival of democracy in the world," by Rajiv Kumar, India's chief election commissioner.

Most of India's eligible voters will cast their ballots using electronic voting machines and about 5.5 million of them have been set up across the country. Voters press a button against the name of a candidate and their party symbol to cast their ballot.

India’s Centre for Media Studies calculated that more than 11 billion dollars (NZ) was spent in the 2019 polls in India, almost double the cost in 2014. The 2024 elections are expected to be even more expensive.

The Hindu nationalist BJP looks to be in a dominant position, with the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) currently the leading opposition group. The alliance of various groups is scrambling to sort out problems between members, and a significant campaign funding shortfalls.

"The INDIA bloc has taken a decision to fight an ideological election. The coalition will decide after winning the election as to who will be the leader and prime minister," said senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi earlier this month.

While Congress claims that democracy and the nation's constitution are under threat from the BJP administration, the BJP rolls on with popular policies targeting India’s poorest, and long-standing infrastructure woes.

Latest opinion polls suggest the BJP will pick up around 340 seats, with the Congress party struggling to get above 50. This comes amid repeated assertions by Modi on the campaign trail that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would better 400 seats, with his own party taking around 370.

In the decade it has ruled India, the BJP has built up its Hindu voter base by simply keeping promises made in election campaigns. In 2019, it removed the semi-autonomous status of the northern Kashmir region. In January, Modi inaugurated the grand Lord Ram temple in Ayodhya on a site that was once a flashpoint of Hindu-Muslim conflict.

Meanwhile, his government last month implemented a citizenship law that grants nationality to Hindus and people of some other faiths who flee neighbouring countries, despite criticism of an anti-Muslim bias.

For many Indian voters, Modi IS the BJP, and the BJP is the natural party of government.

Certainly, India economic performance in the last decade or so has been spectacular, jumping from eight to fifth in the list of world economies, and with GDP likely to reach some $5 trillion by 2030.

That said, everywhere you turn you can find those critical of the way the BJP runs the country: farmers, teachers, journalists, exporters, ethnic minorities and many others rail at the at times heavy-hand of Hindu nationalism, and a “Modi-knows-best” atmosphere that continues to confound his political opponents.

- Asia Media Centre