On The Radar: India's population tops China's

Maybe today, maybe by the end of this week, India's population will exceed China's. 

By the end of the week India's population is expected to reach 1.425 billion, which means it will match and then surpass mainland China’s population, according to the UN.

Of course it may have already done so - India hasn't conducted a census since 2011 and estimations of the actual number of people in the country vary.  

“China’s population reached its peak size of 1.426 billion in 2022 and has started to fall. Projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population could drop below 1 billion before the end of the century,” the UN's Department of Economic and Social Affairs said.

The UN says India’s population is expected to reach 1.64 billion by 2050. This growth will have significant impacts on India’s economy, environment, and society.

India’s population growth has been driven by several factors, including declining mortality rates, high fertility rates, and increasing life expectancy.

Over the past few decades, India has made significant strides in improving access to healthcare, reducing infant mortality rates, and increasing life expectancy. The population has continued to grow even as fertility rates have declined, and continue to do so.

But while the fertility rate has been declining over the past few decades, it is still high compared to other countries. The total fertility rate (TFR) in India was 2.2 in 2019, which is just above the replacement level of 2.1.

On average, each woman in India is having just over two children. While this is a significant improvement from the TFR of 5.9 in 1951, it is still high compared to other countries such as China, where the TFR is 1.5.

The high fertility rate in India is driven by several factors, including cultural and social norms, lack of access to contraception, and a preference for male children. While the government has made significant efforts to improve access to contraception and promote family planning, progress has been slow.

In addition, the preference for male children has led to a skewed sex ratio, with more boys being born than girls.

India is already one of the most densely populated countries in the world, with a population density of 464 people per square kilometre. This continues to lead to overcrowding in larger cities, pressure on natural resources, especially water, and environmental issues like deforestation and air pollution.

The continued rapid growth in India’s population is also likely to have significant societal implications. The high fertility rate has led to a young population, with a large proportion of the population under the age of 25. While this can be seen as a demographic dividend, it also means that there is a significant youth population require jobs, education and healthcare. 

India's National Population Policy, aims to achieve a stable population by 2045, and the UN says it expects the population to stabilize around 2064. 

- Asia Media Centre