On the Radar: Pakistan's turbulent politics

As Pakistan marks 75 years since Partition with India, its politics remain turbulent and at times chaotic.

Its latest crisis has the potential to ignite a firestorm of protest after former leader Imran Kahn was charged under the country’s anti-terrorism law.

Its just the latest move in a long-running political drama stretching back some five years.

Pakistan has had a long history of alternating periods of electoral democracy mixed with an authoritarian military government. Military presidents include General Ayub Khan in the 1960s, General Zia ul Haq in the 1980s, and General Pervez Musharraf from 1999.

The 2018 election in Pakistan did not change the country’s political dynamics a great deal, apart from the appearance in the polls of the retired international cricketer Imran Khan, and his new Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.

But while that election went off without the usual interference from the Pakistan military, the country’s entire political system continues to be strongly influenced by the army, which has mounted numerous coups since 1947.

But in 2018, the interference was more subtle, with the military intervening indirectly in government policy and governance, rather than taking direct control at the point of a gun. They threw their considerable influence behind Imran Kahn 

Imran Kahn entered the top job after a number of years struggling to have his voice heard. He was a fresh face, known in the west, and riding a wave of reform. Importantly, he had the support of the army, which for the first time chose to support someone outside the “political families” usually involved in running the country.

But the issues facing Pakistan were, and remain significant.    

Pakistan is a fractured and diverse place, with over twenty languages and more than 300 distinct dialects. Urdu and English are the official languages, but Punjabi, Sindhi, Pashtu, Baluchi and Seraiki are also spoken by many people. 

This diversity is the root of myriad regional tensions and continues to be a factor in Pakistan’s inability to form a constitution acceptable to all.
Pakistan also faces significant issues with India in Kashmir, and its economic woes have only worsened under Covid.

The global hike in inflation that has followed the pandemic slammed Pakistan, already carrying a huge national debt, with many people living in poverty.  The rising cost of food and foreign imports like fuel led to public dissatisfaction with the country’s economic management.

Rising criticism and lack of public support led to the opposition attempting to remove the leader via a vote of no confidence. However, Khan attempted to derail a vote by dissolving Parliament, finally losing the support of the military, and many voters. He had no choice but resign and call for fresh elections – all the while claiming Washington was trying to bring him down. 

But somewhat predictably, the pressures that led to Khan’s fall — rising prices of food, the national debt and the loss of the military’s support — have only worsened under the current government.

In July, residents of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous state, gave Khan’s party, Tehreek-e-Insaf, a sweeping victory in local elections. His public support began climbing, and he appeared to be on the way back.

Despite being removed from office, Kahn has continued to hold political rallies in which he accused the US, the military and Shehbaz Sharif, the opposition leader who succeeded him as next prime minister, of conspiring against him. Those accusations have all been denied.

But, the latest crisis comes after police filed terrorism charges against Khan in the last week .

Calls to hold general elections earlier than planned are growing louder, and Kahn supporters say the moves against him are simply the current government shutting down his political force.

Authorities have yet to arrest Khan, but many believe that is inevitable.

In a speech last week Kahn threatened to sue police officers and a judge involved in the case of a senior aide, Shahbaz Gill, who  Khan said was tortured while in police custody. Officials have denied those claims.

After the speech a complaint was made to police, accusing Khan of attempting to intimidate the judiciary and police force.

A case was registered against Khan under Pakistan’s terrorism law, and he will appear before the anti-terrorism court in Islamabad later this week, where he is likely to have his "protective bail" extended.

Under Pakistan law, police present a “First Information Report” to the court, outlining their case. The judge can then either permit an investigation to proceed or dismiss the report.

Every senior politician faces this moment in Pakistan it seems, and if he is arrested Khan will no doubt play the political martyr like many before him.

His fundamental problem is that he criticised the military - in Pakistan that is often the end of a political career. 

But Imran Khan can still play the populist card, tapping into the deep disillusionment many Pakistanis feel about politics in the country.  

What happens next has the potential to stoke the political anger building among his supporters across the country, increasing the uncertainty and instability that continues to dog Pakistan.

- Asia Media Centre