Report: Lowy Institute's Asia Power Index
10 February 2023
On February 6, the Lowy Institute released its latest Asia Power Index, examining and ranking countries across the Indo-Pacific. So what are these rankings and what do they show? The Asia Media Centre has a look at the highlights of the report.
What is the Asia Power Index and who releases it?
The Asia Power Index is a data-driven report published by Sydney-based think tank the Lowy Institute.
Since 2018, the independent institute has been releasing the Asia Power Index. Ultimately, it ranks 26 countries, stretching from Pakistan in the west to up north as far as Russia and into the Pacific, to the likes of New Zealand and the US.
It does this ranking by evaluating countries on 133 indicators that fall into eight different measures: Military Capability; Defence Networks; Economic Capability; Economic Relationships; Diplomatic Influence; Cultural Influence; Resilience; and Future Resources.
These eight measures broadly cover the resources each has and their influence in the Indo-Pacific region. A weighted average is generated across these measures to give a country its "comprehensive power" - a score out of 100.
This year, the Lowy Institute has published its full report and also produced an interactive map for people to dig down into the data themselves and compare countries.
So, what does the 2023 index show?
The top 10 ranked countries were:
1. United States (80.7/100)
2. China (72.5/100)
3. Japan (37.2/100)
4. India (36.3/100)
5. Russia (31.6/100)
6. Australia (30.9/100)
7. South Korea (29.5/100)
8. Singapore (25.1/100)
9. Indonesia (19.4/100)
10. Thailand (18.7/100).
New Zealand was ranked 13 out of 26 with a score of 16.8 out of 100.
The US and China in the top two spots are no surprise – they are spaces the two superpowers have held since 2018. Superpowers are classed as countries with a score of 70 plus.
China, despite ranking second, saw the largest decline in comprehensive power – from 74.6 in 2021 to 72.5 in 2023. The report puts this down in large part to China’s strict Covid response which “saw the connective tissue of its relationship with its neighbours – people exchanges, business links and cultural ties – atrophy".
In contrast, the report says the US “maintains an enduring advantage as the most powerful country in Asia and widened its lead slightly over Chins for a second year”.
What about other Asia powers?
Following these two countries are middle powers Japan and India. While these are both still two of the most powerful countries in Asia, they have dropped out of the category of “major powers” (defined in the report as countries with a comprehensive power greater than 40 points). For reference, the last time Japan was above Lowy's 40-point threshold was 2020, while India was last above it in 2019.
Middle powers are classified as countries with a comprehensive power of 10 or more.
India’s drop is attributed to its “uneven strategic contribution to the regional balance”. The country scores highly in some areas (such as in diplomatic influence or future resources, which reflects its expected increase in economic and demographic weight) but has slipped in part due to its growing power gap – India's actual power in the rankings compared to its potential when taking all its resources into account.
On the other hand, the report attributes Japan’s slip more to a slow decline in key measures it has traditionally done well in – such as economic size and technological edge.
Where does New Zealand fit in all this?
New Zealand sits at number 13 on the list – the same spot it held when the rankings were last released in 2021. However, this time around, New Zealand lost one point from its overall ranking (from 17.8/100 in 2021 to 16.8/100 in 2023).
New Zealand sits as a middle ranking country with its comprehensive power. Out of the eight key measures, its strongest scores are in Resilience and Defence Networks.
However, overall New Zealand didn't move up on any of the eight measures and in fact, dropped two places in the diplomatic influence measure.
According to the Lowy Institute, "this likely reflects New Zealand's relative lack of high-level face-to-face diplomacy during the Covid-19 pandemic.".
Further reading:
- The big picture: five lessons for five years of the Asia Power Index - Lowy Institute
- Institute finds US still far more influential than China in the region - RNZ
- As US-China rivalry heats up, can Australia defuse the risk of superpower conflict? - The Guardian