New Zealanders ‘sea-blind’ to maritime change in Asia-Pacific

Trade, the law of the sea, national security, a changing regional order, rising sea levels, illegal fishing and transnational drug trafficking: all these topics were discussed under one umbrella – New Zealand's maritime environment – at the New Zealand Maritime Security Challenges Symposium in Wellington.

Academics and policy analysts described maritime security as a field full of uncertainties and complexities. New Zealand, which has the fourth largest Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) established under United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), is in the middle of that transition as an island nation. 

Despite this, New Zealanders are “sea blind”, says Rear Admiral John Martin, New Zealand Chief of Navy. Politicians, policymakers, media and the public alike don't fully understand the strategic importance of the sea that surrounds us.

A changing strategic environment 

New Zealand’s engagement with Asian countries in the transitioning Asia-Pacific was highlighted throughout the symposium. In particular, panellists discussed the emerging powers in the region and the geopolitical and security implications for New Zealand.

Kennedy Graham, former Green MP and diplomat, compared the trade-to-GDP ratio in New Zealand to other Asian countries — and argued New Zealand over-emphasised its dependency on trade.

The combined value of exports and imports accounted for 53 percent of GDP in New Zealand, while in the Philippines it was 65 percent, Singapore 318 percent, Vietnam about 185 percent, India 40 percent, and China 37 percent, according to the World Bank national accounts data from 1960 to 2016. 

Given the fact that almost all of New Zealand’s imports and exports travelled by sea, “the size and location of our country” required more critical consideration from strategic thinkers and policymakers.

With respect to coping with new concepts in the region, such as the "Indo-Pacific" he said: “New Zealand is naturally Pacific, and to some extent, Asia; less so Indo. I personally think what’s needed is less geo-strategic thinking in that prospect, but more thinking on how New Zealand can engage in international discourse with new concepts.”

Maritime estate, domain and periphery

Simon Murdoch, former Secretary of Foreign Affairs, defined New Zealand’s maritime environment as “an increasingly contested periphery” — a term Chinese academics had recently incorporated to describe China’s ‘Periphery Strategy’.

Murdoch clarified three concepts related to maritime security — estate, domain and periphery — and noted that what we discussed in the past as New Zealand maritime domain is not the same today, “because our value interests, trans-Pacific interests have extended to maritime and continental East Asia”.

“The estate is basically where we have a fully governed space by New Zealand law, and we are capable of enforcing New Zealand law in the estate ... The domain is more extensive. In the domain, including Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, which is partially governed, we expect for law of international or regional treaties to be observed, not New Zealand law.

“Our estate and our domain incorporate sea lanes and air corridors that connect us commercially with export markets and other factor flows in the Pacific Rim markets with Americans, and into the supply and value chains in East Asia.

“I need hardly say that our fundamental economic prosperity as a country is centered on those supply and value chains, particularly thanks to trade globalisation and the thriving relationships with China,” Murdoch said.

New Zealand’s Exclusive Economic Zone is one of the largest in the world, with an area of 405 million hectares — more than 15 times its land mass.

As described in the Defence White Paper 2016, New Zealand has a large maritime domain that extends from Kiribati on the Equator 9500km to the Ross Sea and in an arc that stretches nearly 7000km from New Caledonia and Samoa in the west across to Pitcairn Island in the east.

Graph from page 28 of the Defence White Paper 2016.

“What’s happening is that the periphery is becoming more contested, and governance is what’s been contested in the periphery. Whose rules are applied in the periphery? And it’s been all disrupted by various dynamic forces in the periphery,” Murdoch said.

“The essence of my argument is that any forward-looking maritime interests, strategies in New Zealand must necessarily begin in the periphery, deal with what’s happening in the periphery, make sure we have what I called a national value proposition for making our views known, accepted and accommodated in the periphery, and that’s a job for diplomacy of all kinds.”

He raised questions about future choices for New Zealand governments.

“Fundamentally, if our government want to continue to pursue our national maritime interests, we need to be able to have our interests recognised and accommodated by those who are making the rules in the periphery.”

Recurring issues: climate, crime and competition

Robert Ayson, professor of Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, reviewed the Defence White Papers in 2010 and 2016, and identified three "Cs" – climate, crime and competition – as the main threats to our maritime environment today.

“These challenges are all in the local area… Just look at the size of our maritime estate, look at the growing challenges that are occurring within and around it. Those challenges are big. And I don’t think they are going to be enough,” Ayson said.

The rules-based international order under greater pressure

Many speakers referred to the "rules-based order", but international law expert Joanna Mossop said the concept had become more complicated and was being increasingly challenged. 

“I am going to name the elephant in the room when it comes to challenges to the rules-based order — China,” said Mossop, who spoke of China’s alternative interpretations to international laws, paying special attention to its expanding presence in the South China Sea.   

As a South China Sea observer, she had noticed China applied a fundamentally different interpretation of international law. 

It had put considerable effort into promoting and explaining Chinese concepts of what it saw as the law-based order. It had also invested in academics who wrote about the law of the sea from China's perspective.

For New Zealand, a growing issue was dealing with competing ideas about international law. The idea many Westerners had with international law as “objective and established” was not necessarily held by academics and policymakers in other parts of the world, for instance, Russia and China.   

Ocean protection: a blind spot in maritime security

Bronwen Golder, senior manager of the Pew Bertarelli Ocean Legacy of the Pew Charitable Trusts, discussed maritime issues from the other direction. Instead of discussing competition for the ocean's resources, Golder focused on the health and productivity of the ocean itself. 

The ocean was one of the least protected resources on the planet, she said. At present, less than two percent of the planet’s marine environments were fully protected. In New Zealand, the proportion was even lower.

More than 35 years on from the government committing to preserve and protect its marine environment in exchange for the rights and responsibilities gained under UNCLOS, less than 0.5 percent of New Zealand's marine environment was fully protected.

Climate change was driving oceans to warm and acidify, which in turn was seeing a marked increase in stronger and more frequent storms, and impacting the health and extent of coral reefs and shellfish populations, fish distribution, species migration, and food availability for both marine species and humans.

A recent WWF International assessment estimated 85 percent of fish around the world were at risk from illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing.

Even where fishing was regulated – such as in New Zealand – the continued practice of bottom trawling, low levels of on-board observers, and bycatch were putting the health and productivity of the ocean at risk. 

Ocean plastic was possibly the most talked-about threat to our ocean, Golder said. Recent estimates suggested that by 2050 there would be more plastic in the sea (by weight) than fish.

"For all our talk today of security, boundaries, and regulation, the reality is that unless we see the ocean as a realm without boundaries we are unlikely to be able to assure future generations that the lifestyles and livelihoods the ocean supports are secure and sustainable."

Most ocean plastics came just five countries in Asia: China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, according to Stemming the Tide, a study released by Ocean Conservancy and The McKinsey Center for Business and Environment.

“New Zealand’s Maritime Security Environment: Emerging Challenges and Policy Responses" was organised by Victoria University of Wellington's Centre for Strategic Studies.

– Asia Media Centre