Expert view: Xi Jinping's ideas likely to dominate policy

The 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party – an event that happens only every five years – begins on Wednesday (18 October). China's leadership will be selected at the five-day event, which will be attended by 2287 delegates from around China. Jason Young, Senior Lecturer, Political Science and International Relations at the Victoria University of Wellington, shares his views on what to expect.

What’s the significance of the 19th National Congress?

The 19th Congress determines the leadership and policy direction of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for the next five years. It is the most important congress in China because the CCP dominates the political process.

What are the biggest issues to watch for?

The big issue is who will join President Xi Jinping in the Politburo as people retire. The people who are elevated will give some idea as to Xi’s influence over the Party direction, and on the focus of reform and development for the next five years.

Other issues include, very broadly, how the Congress will push forward with reform and development over the next five years. There are increasing calls from outside China that the push towards liberalisation of the economy (financial sector, SOEs, et cetera) has been replaced by a push towards a stronger role for the state in the economy. It is unlikely there will be any announcement of political reform, but we may see some moves to strengthen the role of the Party in the state, economy and society, such as moves to invest in the expanding tech sector or increased management of social groups.

"The China Dream is a continuation of China’s drive to rejuvenate and to return to its position of strength in the region."

Finally, as Xi has introduced new ideas and is generally considered a strong leader with a far-sighted foreign policy position, these ideas (such as the China Dream or the Belt and Road Initiative) will likely be moved to be more central in Party documents or even the Constitution. How these ideas conceptualise China’s view of its role in the world is central to understanding Chinese foreign policy over the next few years.

What is the 'China Dream'?

The key to understanding the "China Dream" is to look to China’s two Centennial Goals (100 years following the establishment of the Party; and 100 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China). The first goal is to become a "moderately prosperous society" by 2021, and the second is to become a strong and prosperous society by 2049. The China Dream is a continuation of China’s drive to rejuvenate and to return to its position of strength in the region.

What do you expect in terms of economic or financial issues?

The goal of deepening the role of the market still exists, but at the same time an increasing role for the state has been identified. This contradictory logic will, I imagine, remain central to understanding the reforms and initiatives put forward, such as ongoing capital controls with a goal to internationalise the renminbi.

There may be a stronger focus on China’s integration into the global economy through initiatives such as the Belt and Road. 

What impact will the congress and cohort have on China’s military direction?

President Xi has worked hard to reform the structure of the military, to reduce numbers and to modernise the forces. I would expect this to continue in earnest and for the military to remain under the direction of the Party through Xi as Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

Have any issues been put on the backburner in anticipation of the congress?

Everything is on the backburner until this is over. It will be fascinating to see how the upcoming US-China meeting will play out but we won’t have any signals until after the Congress.

What is the role of women and minorities in the Party structure and congress?

There is a quota for the number of women and ethnic groups in the Congress. This is largely symbolic. China’s political system largely uses the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference to demonstrate representation. The Party Congress is about the structure of the CCP, the ruling party.

What interest is the congress receiving in New Zealand media?

I have seen little coverage in New Zealand. Considering it is easily one of the most important political conferences of the last few years, this is disappointing.

Read other expert views by New Zealand commentators here.

– Asia Media Centre