Korea's Election 2024

South Koreans go to national polls on April 10.  Philip Turner reports that despite considerable local drama, the election is unlikely to change the country’s international direction.

From 2021, late in the term of former President Moon Jae-in, Korea has tacked steadily away from China towards the US, Japan and western friends.  That is likely to continue whichever party wins next week's election.    

With the prospect of Trump 2.0 in the US, Korea looms as an increasingly important partner for New Zealand in a troubled neighborhood.  

Current President Yoon Suk-yeol is not running in the election for the National Assembly – his term runs until 2027.   

The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) currently holds 180 of 300 seats in the single-chamber National Assembly.   

Yoon had been hoping that a good performance by his conservative People’s Power Party (PPP) would end the opposition’s majority, which has been a handbrake on his ability to govern since he came to power in 2022.  

One week out, that looks unlikely. 

The latest Gallup poll gives the progressive side (the DP and its ally the Fatherland Innovation Party) a narrow lead of 39% to 37% over the PPP. 

Korean politics are traditionally highly volatile and tribal – and this election is no exception.   

The major issue appears to be the popularity – or otherwise – of President Yoon, even though he is not running.   

A non-career politician (he was formerly the top prosecutor under President Moon), Yoon’s short fuse and authoritarian style have embittered many voters and led to allegations that Korean democracy is backsliding on his watch.   

In the Gallup poll, 58% of voters rated his performance in office as “very bad”.  Dr Sangsin Lee, Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, says this degree of dislike is unusual for Korea. 

Allegations of corruption and division over leadership have wracked both main parties and led to a confusion of splits and new parties.  

DP leader Lee Jae-myung is under official investigation for corruption, and survived a nasty assassination attempt (by stabbing) in January. 

Cho Kuk, the former Minister of Justice under Moon, was sentenced to jail for two years on separate corruption charges, but has emerged as a serious opposition leader at the head of the Fatherland Innovation Party.  

While these splits complicate the voters’ picture, their choice boils down largely to the main progressive and conservative camps.  

The radical left – an alliance of the Green and Justice Parties – won only 6 seats in the last election and is struggling to make an impact this time.  

Dr Lee says that, as in many democracies around the world, policy debates are being overwhelmed by personality battles and tribal loyalties. 

For those who do consider policy, the main issue is the economy. 

Korea came out of COVID in better shape than many, and GDP growth is expected to be a healthy 2.2% in 2024.  

But Lee points to public anger over inflation and the cost of living, epitomized by consumers paying 10,000 won (NZ$12) for a single apple.   

A recent poll showed only 19% expect the economy to improve soon.   

Lurking in the background are a host of issues such as a major doctors’ strike, a rapidly declining population (the result of the world’s lowest fertility rate), and the intensifying international competition in Korea’s flagship industry of semi-conductors.  

Lee thinks the progressives are on course to score another big victory, and may even retain their absolute majority in the Assembly. 

That would mean a continuation of rancorous politics and policy deadlock in the Assembly. It will frustrate the president’s ambitions for reforms in education,  labour and pensions.  

But that will be little different to what Korea has seen for the last two years.  

South Korea President Yoon Suk-Yeol at his inauguration/ photo Korea Govt

Short of an extraordinary event like impeachment, President Yoon will continue to have a largely free hand externally.  According to John Lee,  Editor of SouthKoreaPro, little is likely to change In foreign policy. 

That will mean a continuation of South Korea’s steady shift away from China towards the US, Japan and western friends.  

South Korea increasingly matters to New Zealand.  It is one of the top dozen economies of the world, with a standard of living close to our own.  It is New Zealand’s 5th largest trading partner, buying NZ$2.26 billion of our exports in the year to February 2024, and a major source of tourists and students. 

But it is also increasingly important as a like-minded partner for New Zealand in a troubled region, a fellow democracy committed to liberal principles at a time when these values are under attack.   

Since his election in 2022 President Yoon has followed a bold, and largely consistent foreign policy of committing Korea to liberal democratic values under his slogan of making Korea a “Global Pivotal State”.   

He dumped his predecessor’s intense and ultimately unsuccessful efforts to seek detente with North Korea, and focused on strengthening the alliance relationship with the US.   

His signature success has been rebuilding the relationship with Japan, which was severely strained under Moon.  John Lee notes that Korea needs to work on its cooperation with the US and Japan to avoid South Korea being sidelined in its own neighbourhood. 

South Korea resembles New Zealand in some important ways.  Like New Zealand it has just one ally (admittedly a big one - the US), but is not a member of any multilateral security pact such as AUKUS.   

Akin to New Zealand’s “independent foreign policy”, Korea has traditionally sought to balance its strong security ties to the US with economic links with China. 

Yet Yoon, following Moon, has steadily put more distance between Korea and China.   

On this issue he is in step with Korean opinion.  A Pew survey from 2022 showed 80% of Koreans held negative views of China.  As elsewhere in the region, negativity towards China has climbed sharply over the last decade.   

 Politically, under Yoon Korea has been highly aligned with New Zealand, supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, and issuing strong statements of concern on Chinese behaviour in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. 

Like New Zealand, Yoon has shown interest in NATO, and joined Prime Ministers Ardern and Hipkins in joining the so-called Asia Pacific 4 (AP4) in the margins of the last two NATO Leaders meetings.  

Economically, Korea has been buffeted by the “decoupling” of the US from China.   

As a result Korean trade with China has fallen significantly in the last two years.   

In December 2023 the US overtook China as Korea’s number one export destination.   By the end of this year South Korea is projected to be China’s only neighbour for which China is not its number one trade partner. 

Korea and New Zealand both joined the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) – though to limited effect so far.  

Like New Zealand Korea has been subject to cyber threats attributed to Chinese state-backed groups in recent years. 

And as ever, Koreans remain wary of the threat from Pyongyang, now reinforced by North Korea’s ever closer relationship with a belligerent Russia.  

On top of these regional concerns, Yoon and his team are trying to craft a plan to deal with Trump 2.0 – should he win his way back to the White House this November.  

While Korea was among the more successful allies in managing Trump the first time around, policy-makers are under no illusions about the challenges they may face.   

In his first time in office Trump threatened to reduce US troop numbers on the peninsula, demanded five times as much money to pay for them, and forced the Koreans to re-open their already-agreed bilateral FTA.  

Most memorably Trump met several times with Kim Jong-un – but his walkout from their critical summit in Hanoi caused Kim to retreat into further isolation and a deepening alliance with Russia.  

The biggest risk this time around is that Trump may threaten the US-ROK security alliance itself, and the trilateral relationship between the ROK, Japan and the US.  

The election on April 10 is likely to be decided on personalities and domestic issues, not foreign policy.   That will reinforce stability in Korea’s approach to the region.  

As New Zealand under Prime Minister Luxon tilts further towards traditional friends in the Five Eyes and Japan, South Korea and New Zealand are likely to find good reason to strengthen their own relationship in support of security, open trade and the rules-based order.  

The views expressed are those of the author 

- Asia Media Centre