Thailand: A BRICS+ Case Study

The ongoing geopolitical tensions between the G7 nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.) and BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have created uncertainty for emerging nations, including Thailand.

Established in 2009, BRICS was founded on the premise that international institutions were overly dominated by Western powers to the detriment of the developing world. The bloc has sought to coordinate its members’ economic and diplomatic policies, found new financial institutions, and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar.

The growing economic, political, and strategic rivalries between these blocs presented Thailand with a challenging question: which alliance would best serve its interests? The decision to join BRICS+ or maintain existing relationships with G7 countries became a pivotal choice with far-reaching consequences.

Thailand’s decision-making process reflected the Kingdom’s concerns about economic opportunities and diplomatic risks. The Thai government knew joining BRICS+ might strain ties with the G7, potentially altering its relationships with some long-standing allies.

It’s a situation faced by several nations, but Thailand’s decision to join was audacious.

Historically, switching alliances between major global powers can disrupt trade dynamics and lead to consequences like tariffs, sanctions, or shifts in investment. Nonetheless, the benefits of joining BRICS+ could outweigh these risks, offering Thailand access to new markets.

To understand why Thailand's decision to join BRICS+ is strategically sound, it’s helpful to consider a key theory in international relations: the patron-client relationship. This concept helps explain the dynamics between powerful countries and their less influential partners, especially in a global context with unevenly distributed influence.

A patron-client relationship is often imbalanced, with patrons providing resources or protection in exchange for loyalty. After World War II, the United States led the creation of global institutions like the IMF and World Bank, shaping global economic policies. This arrangement gave the U.S. and its G7 partners significant control over financial resources, building influence and dependency among emerging nations. As a result, many countries aligned with U.S.-led institutions during the Cold War, while those resisting Western influence, like North Korea and Cuba, aligned with the then Soviet Union, and consequently faced economic sanctions from the West.

However, shifts in global power dynamics over the past few decades have created opportunities for less influential countries to balance relations with competing patrons, potentially reducing their dependency on any single power. Thailand’s decision to join BRICS+ reflects this trend, aiming to leverage new alliances while maintaining existing relationships.

Some analysts argue that Thailand’s decision could strain its long-standing ties with the G7, which have existed for decades. Thailand’s relationship with the U.S. dates back to 1833, when the two nations signed the Treaty of Amity and Commerce. For many years, the U.S. and its allies supported Thailand’s development through trade, investment, and military cooperation – during the Vietnam War period and beyond.. However, the appeal of closer ties with China and other BRICS+ nations has grown in recent years due to economic shifts and regional dynamics.

China’s rapid economic, technological, and infrastructural development has positioned it to challenge existing global power structures. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has expanded its influence across more than 139 countries, including Thailand, where it has helped strengthen regional connectivity through infrastructure, energy, and digital network investments.

While it has faced criticism regarding debt sustainability and environmental impact, the BRI has solidified China’s economic ties with many emerging markets, including Thailand. For Thailand, the BRI offers opportunities for infrastructure development and integration into regional trade routes, which could boost economic growth.

In response to China’s growing influence, the U.S. and its allies launched the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) as an alternative to the BRI. However, the IMEC may take years to become fully operational, while China has already established a significant presence in Southeast Asia.

China is now Thailand's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $135 billion in 2023, compared to $72.8 billion in U.S.-Thailand trade in 2023. These figures highlight China’s growing role in supporting Thailand’s economic needs. The increased trade with China has made it an attractive partner for Thailand, offering a counterbalance to Western influence.

China’s role in founding BRICS+ aims to balance U.S. influence and elevate the voice of the Global South. BRICS+ seeks to shift the global order from a U.S.-dominated unipolar system to a multipolar structure, offering its members a platform for cooperation and trade without relying on traditional Western institutions. By joining BRICS+, Thailand can diversify its alliances, access new investment sources, and attempt to shape a more inclusive global economic framework.

The G7 and BRICS+ hold significant economic influence in today’s geopolitical landscape, creating intense competition. Meanwhile, Thailand’s economy has been struggling for some time with slow growth and a need for investment. The new  government’s priority is to secure economic opportunities while maintaining relationships with major global powers.  

The recent changes in global politics have highlighted Thailand's explicit and formal diplomatic approach. This strategy aligns with the patron-client theory, which proposes that clients can use competition between patrons to negotiate better terms and protect their national interests.

At the recent BRICS+ event in Kazan Russia, Thailand’s Foreign Minister Maris Sangiamongsa noted: “Thailand sees that if we can become a member and work with BRICS countries, Thailand’s role will become clearer, and we will be able to protect our interests both as a developing country and an emerging economy.”  

Thailand’s strategic position, which has a significant role in ASEAN nations, allows it to continue balancing between global powers, as both the G7 and BRICS+ seek to maintain or strengthen ties with the country. For the G7, maintaining influence in Thailand is crucial for its broader regional strategy in Southeast Asia. For BRICS+, welcoming new members like Thailand helps to expand its reach and strengthen its collective voice in global affairs.

For these reasons, Thailand’s decision to join BRICS+ can be seen as a calculated move that serves its national interests.

 But the expansion of BRICS comes with its own geopolitical implications.

The BRICS countries represent over 40% of the world's population and nearly 24% of the world's GDP. In 2022, BRICS accounted for a larger share of world GDP than the G7. 

But growing membership brings new challenges, including increasing pushback from Western counties and potential divisions within the bloc. Just how these internal tensions are managed will be the key in determining whether the group can become a more influential presence on the global stage.

Thailand finds itself now positioned to benefit from the economic and geopolitical opportunities available from both global power blocs.

 However, navigating this new alliance requires careful diplomacy, ensuring that Thailand does not alienate its G7 partners even as it seeks opportunities within BRICS+.

• Asia Media Centre