US Election & Asia : Japan

Although we cannot vote, Asia is closely watching the US presidential election campaign. In Japan, 86 percent of respondents of a September poll by NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) were found to be interested in the US presidential election.

In a Nikkei opinion poll, conducted between 13-15 September, 71 percent wanted Vice President Harris while 19 percent were in favor of former President Trump.  

From the perspective of a scholar based in Tokyo, there are three factors at stake in the US election: the liberal international order, the US’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific, and US policies on geoeconomics.  

First, the international liberal order is at stake. Since President Obama explicitly stated in 2013 that America will no longer be “the world’s police man”, the US is less willing to lead the international liberal order. Yet, the increasingly multipolar world demands efforts to maintain and, if needed, to refit the international order.

The liberal international order has recently been challenged by conflicts violating international law, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the rising conflicts in the Middle East and increasing security tensions in Asia.

Dr Akiko Fukushima: "Japan strives to work with the US and like-minded countries to maintain the rules-based international order. "

Japan strives to work with the US and like-minded countries to maintain the rules-based international order.

On Ukraine, the former Prime Minister Kishida stated in his address to the NATO summit plus IP4 in 2022 that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow” and acted together with the G7 in imposing sanctions on Russia for its violation of international law. Should we allow such acts, it will have implications to motivate revisionist powers to follow suit in Asia.  

As the world shifts, from the bipolar order following World War II, to the post-Cold War unipolar order, and now to a multipolar order, it will be essential for the new US president to show his/her will to maintain and refit the international order, and to do so quickly after the inauguration. The new president must solve ongoing conflicts in a manner that shows the international order cannot be violated.

Trump has expressed his will to end the Ukrainian situation but without saying how, while Harris may take a more realistic rules-based approach on the Middle East. The key to settling ongoing conflicts is to avoid creating a misunderstanding or vacuum that revisionist powers can take advantage of, while ignoring the international order. 

Second, the US engagement in the Indo-Pacific is at stake. The Japan-US alliance has been the cornerstone of Japan’s foreign and security policy for decades and is now the cornerstone of peace, security, and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific, as stated in the April 2024 US-Japan Joint Statement.

Japan will maintain and strengthen the alliance under Prime Minister Ishiba. I hasten to add that his article on 27 September on the need to revise the Japan Status of Forces Agreement, the Japan-US Security Treaty and establish an Asian NATO was drafted when Ishiba was a candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidency and needs more scrutiny, (Prime Minister Ishiba himself admitted this in post-election interviews).

It is important for a new US president to make his/her position on US engagement in Asia soon after the inauguration, so as not to stir appetite for changing the status quo. 

Third, geoeconomics is at stake. Geopolitics and geoeconomics are now intertwined and cannot be dealt with separately.

President Trump speaking at the signing of the US-Japan Trade Agreement in 2019/ image ANZF

The US, a strong advocate of free trade until a decade ago, has come to perceive that free trade has allowed China and some other countries to take trade away from the US by using their own rules.

Free trade does not have supporters in the White House nor on Capitol Hill. This was reflected in President Trump’s decision to leave the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) immediately after the inauguration.

While the Biden administration has returned to multilateralism, for instance NATO, the US has not returned to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the successor of the TPP.

Instead, it has led the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which does not include market access; nor has it surmounted the impasse over how to resolve trade disputes at the World Trade Oganization (WTO). In the election campaign, Trump stated that the “tariff man” will be back to reduce imports and the US’s trade deficit.  

On China, both presidential candidates and Capitol Hill take strong positions.

Vice President Kamala Harris introduces former Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio at a state luncheon in his honour./ Image ANZF

Succeeding President Biden’s policy, Harris may maintain hard policies on security, such as not tolerating assertive Chinese actions in the South China Sea over the disputed areas including the Scarborough Shoal. However, Harris may opt to continue dialogue with China on common challenges such as climate change.  

When we each struggle with domestic divisions, we need to put our respective houses in order after the elections.

I will be watching how a new US president mends America’s domestic divisions to engage in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, this time not alone but with allies and partners. Our task together is not to let the revisionists to say, “Now is the time for action!”

About the author  

Dr Akiko Fukushima is currently a Senior Fellow at the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research, Japan with a Doctoral degree from Osaka University and M.A. from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University.

She is a Professor at the School of Global Studies and Collaboration, Aoyama Gakuin University and Director of Policy Studies at the National Institute for Research Advancement (NIRA). Concurrently, Dr Fukushima is a member of the International Advisory Board of the Hague Journal of Diplomacy. She has also been on the Japanese government committees on foreign, defence and security policies.

• Asia Media Centre