Indonesia: Election 2024

Indonesians head to the polls today (Feb 14th) in one of the most amazing political and administrative processes on the planet.

Running a general election in one day across a sprawling archipelago of more than 200 million eligible voters is a significant feat, involving 800,000 polling stations, six million temporary election workers – and more than 200,000 candidates.

There are three major candidates for the top job: Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, 72, former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, 54, and former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, 55.

 Incumbent President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo s constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.

Prabowo Subianto, 72, a former military general and incumbent defence minister, is now leading the polls and appears to be the favourite to win today’s vote

Indonesians head to the polls today (Feb 14th) in one of the most amazing political and administrative processes on the planet. Running a general election in one day across a sprawling archipelago of more than 200 million eligible voters is a significant feat, involving 800,000 polling stations, six million temporary election workers – and more than 200,000 candidates.

There are three major candidates for the top job: Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, 72, former Jakarta Gov. Anies Baswedan, 54, and former Central Java Gov. Ganjar Pranowo, 55.

 Incumbent President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo s constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.

Prabowo Subianto, 72, a former military general and incumbent defence minister, is now leading the polls and appears to be the favourite to win today’s poll.. After losing two previous presidential elections, Prabowo has been able to gather support from Indonesia's younger generation. His vice-presidential running mate, Gibran Rakabuming, is Widodo's son. He has promised some continuity in Jokowi’s development plans, which haven’t always moved as quickly as they could have. The combination has also raised questions over dynasty building in Indonesia, a trait that has increased across Indonesian politics , despite the current leaders avowed mission to stop it.  

Indonesia's Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto/ image X

Prabowo’s critics also point to allegations he was involved in the kidnapping and torture of pro-democracy activists in the late 1990s, and of human rights abuses in his role as General in the Indonesian military in Papua and East Timor. Prabowo denies the accusations, and is yet to face any criminal charges, however his involvement in the massacre of civilians in East Timor is well documented.

This is the third time Prabowo will run to be president. He lost against Jokowi in 2014 and 2019.

Anies Baswedan, 54, is former academic and was previously Jakarta governor. Anies has been viewed as the antithesis of Jokowi. He is the only candidate not to pledge to continue Jokowi’s ambitious plan to move the capital city to the island of Borneo.

Anies Baswedan (c)/ Image X

Anies previously served as Jakarta governor – a position he won in 2017 after being accused of chasing hardline Islamic groups for their support. His running mate is Muhaimin Iskandar, leader of the biggest Islamic party, which has strong ties to Indonesia’s largest moderate Muslim organisation, Nahdlatul Ulama, with its membership of over 95 million people.

 Ganjar Pranowo, 55, has had a long career in public service and is the former governor of Central Java. He is a member of the Jokowi-led Indonesia Democratic party of Struggle (PDI-P).

Ganjar paints himself as a man of the people and has also faced issues in his role as provincial governor, including over a mine development in Central Java, which drew criticisms from villagers and activists. He is running alongside coordinating security affairs minister Mahfud MD.

 Ganjar Pranowo leans on the legacy of former leaders Sukarno and Megawati to continue his support in West Java ("Ganjar for everyone in the West")./ image supplied

How is the winner decided?

Presidential candidates must secure more than 50% of the vote. If this does not occur, then a run-off election will be held between the top two candidates in June.

What are the key issues?

The role of dynasties and the strength of the country’s democracy have been the subject of debate. There is unease among civil society groups, and others, that Jokowi is trying to retain influence even after leaving office. His son Gibran was only able to run as vice-president after a court, headed by Jokowi’s brother-in-law, tweaked eligibility criteria – a decision that provoked controversy.

More broadly, young voters make up more than half of the electorate this year, and candidates have been making a concerted effort to target them through social media campaigns. “All candidates are actively utilising social media platforms, notably TikTok and Instagram, which predominantly attract young voters. This scenario contrasts with past elections, where campaign strategies tended to be more conventional,” said Aisah Putri Budiatri, a political researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency.

She says young people are concerned about welfare and employment, and while candidates’ policy platforms all mention these issues, there is very little specifically designed for the youth demographic.

Sharyn Davies is an associate professor at AUT and is also the director of the Herb Feith Indonesia Engagement Centre at Monash University in Melbourne.  

“Today’s poll is a crucial event, determining the country's direction for the next five years. With the nation set to be the world's 4th largest economy within a generation, New Zealand should pay attention because both nations' future economic and regional prosperity are intertwined.

Incumbent President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, ineligible for re-election after two terms, leaves a significant void to fill. The main contenders - Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan, each offering distinct visions for Indonesia's future.

Economically, the election holds weight, particularly regarding Indonesia's role in the electric vehicle industry and its ambition to become a top global economy by 2045. Jokowi's emphasis on domestic nickel processing may face scrutiny, with potential implications for the nation's growth strategies and the capital relocation project initiated under his tenure.

Key domestic concerns such as price stability and youth unemployment feature prominently in voters' considerations, underscoring the urgency for effective policy initiatives. With over 800,000 polling stations set up nationwide and a high expected voter turnout, the electoral process aims for comprehensive representation.

Internationally, Indonesia's democratic exercise assumes significance, contrasting with the authoritarian trends prevalent in some regions. The candidates' positions on global issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict and diplomatic relations with major powers will influence Indonesia's standing on the world stage.”

 Max Lane  is a Visiting Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore

“Most attention at the moment is focused on the Presidential elections, overshadowing the equally important elections for the national and local parliaments. The Presidential elections have been attracting the most attention over the last 20 years. After all, considerable executive power is vested in that position, even if majority support in the parliament for government legislation and policy is also crucial.

This time, however, even more attention is focussed on the Presidential elections because of the emergence of the issue of political-dynasty building caused by the manoeuvres of incumbent President Joko Widodo to secure the Vice-Presidential candidacy alongside Prabowo for his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, and Chairpersonship of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) for his other son, Kaesang Pangarep.

These moves have provoked accusations of Widodo returning to the methods of the Suharto period, and especially to political nepotism.

The emergence of this political dynasty phenomenon is the culmination of a dynamic that has been working its way through mainstream Indonesian politics for two decades.”

 Dr Jordan King is a member of the Asia New Zealand Foundation Leadership Network and was the Foundation’s senior research advisor 2020-2023.

“Prabowo's victory is unlikely to shift the parameters of the economic, social and foreign policies pursued by his predecessor, Joko Widodo. This is not surprising. Political manoeuvring and personal ambition in the years following the 2019 election has seen the division between the old PDI-P and Gerinda rivals blurred while illuminating elite dynamics. In the 2024 election Jokowi’s own son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is not Prabowo’s rival, but his running mate.

Journalists and civil society groups allege complicity on the part of the constitutional court and the electoral commission in allowing this merger of interests to occur, however the notion that Indonesian politics is the site of dynasty building is hardly new.

From a New Zealand perspective, the story of this year’s colourful electoral machinations are of less import than Indonesia’s overall macro story. I wrote five years ago that New Zealand needs to start paying attention to Indonesia in earnest. Every word I wrote about Indonesia’s rising economic, cultural and geopolitical importance is even more true than it was in 2019.

Knowledge of Indonesia amongst New Zealand’s political and business elites (let alone amongst the public) remains woefully low; investing in understanding how this strategically located and economically thriving (fourth largest economy by 2045) democracy ticks is becoming ever more important. New Zealand can choose to focus energy and resources on expanding ties and deepening knowledge of this global power on the make, or we can sit on the margins.”

Donald Greenlees is a Senior Advisor at Asialink at the University of Melbourne 

"As the quality of Indonesian democracy has deteriorated in recent years, one feature of political participation has been justly lauded - the conduct of free and fair elections. But the 2024 election might make even the sanctity of the ballot box a casualty of the general decline in the institutions and culture that underpin Indonesian democracy. Election eve polling and an unofficial ‘quick count’ on Wednesday pointed to an outright win for the ticket of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, President Joko Widodo’s eldest son, in the first round of presidential voting. This would obviate the need for a second round in June.

 A decisive Prabowo victory would owe a lot to the intervention of the President, who was supposed to stay aloof from the campaign and ensure state resources were not used to favour any of the candidates.In his determination to preserve his policies and further the political career of his son, Widodo failed in that fundamental duty. Yet this was a second-best outcome for Widodo:  He had made determined efforts to extend his own time in office in defiance of the two-term limit in the constitution.

One illustration of how state resources were being used to considerable effect in the campaign came from the Minister for Finance Sri Mulyani Indarwati who declared she was suspending disbursements of some social welfare funding because the money was not going to the intended targets.  

Tensions over Widodo’s personal ambitions within the cabinet and beyond are likely to linger well after election day. Sri Mulyani has bluntly told colleagues she does not believe Gibran is up to the job of vice president, let allow president, should Prabowo fall. 

Students on university campus have voiced their concerns via demonstrations and social media campaigns over what they see as the trashing of democracy. 

Joko Widodo might get the victory he sought, but what price to his legacy? Will he be remembered more as a national development president or as a democratic vandal?"

 As usual, this election will be won on personality, not policy.

What can we expect from a new Indonesian leadership ?  Prabowo's supporters say he has learned at Jokowi’s side that infrastructure development and economic growth gain you political support in Indonesia. But the voters are still concerned about the slow erosion of democratic norms which have been started by Joko, and could accelerate under a new leader who famously once suggested that Indonesia doesn’t need democracy.

• Asia Media Centre